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Bullions – Gold & Silver

GOLD

   

Gold is unique as it is both a commodity and a monetary asset. Gold is a highly precious metal that for millennia has been used as money, a store of value and in jewellery. The metal occurs as nuggets or grains in rocks and in alluvial deposits and is one of the coinage metals. It is soft, shiny, yellow, dense, malleable and ductile transition metal. Its stability and high value makes it virtually indestructible and ensures that it is almost always recovered and recycled.

Demand and supply Gold is valued as money. But it has been a conventional practice to view it as a commodity by large number of investors and analysts. This means that it is presumed that gold price is primarily a function of demand and supply.
The supply can be broken down into two components:
1 Mine supply
2 Official gold sales & Recycled scrap gold 
The demand for gold can be broken down into two components:
1 Demand for jewellery / industrial uses ( fabrication demand).
2 Demand for investment.

World Gold Markets 
OTC markets at London (LBMA)
New York and Zurich Gold derivative exchanges at New York – CME (COMEX)
Tokyo (TOCOM)
Mumbai (MCX)
Istanbul, Dubai, Hong Kong and Singapore are doorways to important consuming regions.

Indian Gold Market
India is the world's largest consumer of gold. Indians normally buy about 25 per cent of the world's gold, purchasing around 700 - 750 tones of gold every year. In July 1997 the RBI authorized the commercial banks to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold.

Factors affecting Gold Market
Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices. However, the fluctuations in the INR-US Dollar impact domestic gold prices and have to be closely followed. The global prices are driven by a host of factors with macro-economic factors like strength of the economy, rising importance of emerging markets, currency movements, interest rates being major influencing factors. Supply-demand is a major influencer, amid rising global investor demand and almost stable supplies. Shifts in official gold reserves, reports of sales/purchases by central banks act as major price influencing factors, whenever such reports surface. The investment in gold is influenced by comparative returns from other markets like stock markets, real estate other commodities like crude oil. Domestically, demand and consequently prices to some extent are influenced by seasonal factors like marriages and rural demand is influenced by monsoon, agricultural output and health of the rural economy.

Purity
Gold purity is measured in terms of karats and fineness
Karat: Pure gold is defined as 24 karat
Fineness: Parts per thousand
Thus, 18 karat = (18/24)th of 1000 parts = 750 fineness

 


SILVER

   

Silver's unique properties make it a very useful 'Industrial Commodity', despite it being classed as a precious metal. Demand for silver is built on three main pillars; industrial uses, photography and jewellery & silverware accounting for 342, 205 and 259 million ounces respectively in 2002. Just over half of mined silver comes from Mexico, Peru and United States, respectively, the first, second and fourth largest producing countries. The third largest is Australia. Primary mines produce about 27 percent of world silver, while around 73 percent comes as a by-product of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining. The tie between silver and economic activity is strong, given that around two-thirds of total silver fabrication is in the industrial and photographic sectors. Often a faster growth in demand against supply leads to drop in stocks with government and investors.

Indian Silver Market
Silver imports into India for domestic consumption in 2002 was 3,400 tons down 25 % from record 4,540 tons in 2001. Open General License (OGL) imports are the only significant source of supply to the Indian market. Non-duty paid silver for the export sector rose sharply in 2002, up by close to 200% year-on-year to 150 tons. Around 50% of India's silver requirements last year were met through imports of Chinese silver and other important sources of supply being UK, CIS, Australia and Dubai. Indian industrial demand in 2002 is estimated at 1375 tons down by 13 % from 1,579 tons in 2001. In spite of this fall, India is still one of the largest users of silver in the world, ranking alongside Industrial giants like Japan and the United States. In India silver price volatility is also an important determinant of silver demand as it is for gold.


World Markets
London Bullion Market is the global hub of OTC (Over-The-Counter) trading in silver. Comex futures in New York is where most fund activity is focused Biggest Price Movement since 1995 Between February 4 - 6, 1998, daily prices rocketed by 22.3%, as on a noted US financier had accumulated nearly 130 ounces of physical silver.

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CRUDE OIL

   

Almost all industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or other. Oil & lubricants, transportation, petrochemicals, pesticides and insecticides, paints, perfumes, etc. are largely and directly affected by the oil prices.Aviation gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum coke, and other products are obtained from the processing of crude and other hydrocarbon compounds. The prices of crude are highly volatile. High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases input costs; reduces non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries.

Global Market:
Oil accounts for 40 per cent of the world's total energy demand.The world consumes about 76 million bbl/day of oil.


OPEC fact sheet
OPEC stands for 'Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries'. It is an organization of eleven developing countries that are heavily dependent on oil revenues as their main source of income. The current Members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. OPEC controls almost 40 percent of the world's crude oil.


Indian Market
India ranks among the top 10 largest oil-consuming countries. Oil accounts for about 30 per cent of India's total energy consumption. The country's total oil consumption is about 2.2 million barrels per day. India imports about 70 per cent of its total oil consumption and it makes no exports. The oil reserves of the country (about 5.4 billion barrels) are located primarily in Mumbai High, Upper Assam, Cambay, Krishna-Godavari and Cauvery basins.Crude price is having a high correlation with the international market price.


Market Influencing Factors
* OPEC output and supply

* Terrorism, Weather/storms, War and any other unforeseen geopolitical factors that causes supply disruptions

* Global demand particularly from emerging nations
* Dollar fluctuations
* DOE / API imports and stocks
* Refinery fires & funds buying


Exchanges dealing in Crude Futures
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The International Petroleum Exchange of London (IPE).
The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).


NATURAL GAS

 

 

Natural gas is a colourless, odourless, environment friendly energy source. It is a gas consisting primarily of methane. The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is transportation and storage. While, pipelines are used for inland transport, it cannot be used under oceans, which is essential for global trade. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is a proven commercial technology for transporting natural gas across oceans.


Global Market
The world's proven natural gas reserves as on January 1, 2009 are estimated at 185.2 trillion cubic metre, of which almost three-quarters are located in the Middle East and Eurasia. Russia, Iran, and Qatar together account for about 57% of the total reserves. The total global production of natural gas in 2008 is estimated to be 3065.6 billion cubic metre with the main producing countries being Russia Federation (602 billion cubic metre), US (582 bcm), Canada (175 bcm) and Iran (116 bcm). The total global consumption of natural gas in 2008 is estimated to be 3018.7 billion cubic metre with the main consuming countries being US (657 bcm), Russia Federation (420 billion cubic metre), Iran (117 bcm), Canada (100 bcm) are the major consumers.


Exchange Trading in Natural Gas
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which has acquired New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), runs the world's most liquid natural gas derivative market.


Indian Market
Natural gas has gained prominence in India too as in the rest of the world over the last decade. India has consumed around 41.4 bcm of natural gas in 2008, of which domestic production is 30.6 bcm and imports as LNG has been 10.79 bcm. Fertilizer (41%) and power (37%) are the major users of natural gas in India.


Market Influencing Factors:
Natural gas prices, too like that of any other commodity are a function of market supply and demand. As there are limited alternatives for changing consumption or production in the short run, changes in supply or demand over a short period often result in large price movements.

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METALS : Nickel, Zinc, Lead. Copper

NICKEL

   

Nickel finds its usage in various industries such as engineering, electrical and electronics, infrastructure, automobile and automobile components, packaging, Batteries etc. Among base metals Nickel is the most volatile owing to its strong demand and tight supply. More than 54% if world total supply comes from only five companies. Major producers of Nickel are Russia, followed by Australia, Canada, New Caledonia and Indonesia, which represents over 65% of total world production. London Metal Exchange is important World Nickel Markets. Nickel market in India is of total import dependent. India imports around 30,000 tons of Nickel. Import duty is 15%.


Factors Influencing Nickel Markets
* Above ground supply from scrap
* New mines discovery
* Nickel demand is derived demand thus the situation in the various industries
* Growth in consumption of Stainless steel


COPPER

   

Copper ranks third in world metal consumption after steel and aluminum. It is a product whose fortunes directly reflect the state of the world's economy. Copper is the best non-precious metal conductor of electricity. Copper is also used in power cables, either insulated or uninsulated, for high, medium and low voltage applications.

Demand And Supply
Economic, technological and societal factors influence the supply and demand of copper. The global production of refined copper is around 15 million tons. The major copper-consuming nations are Western Europe (28.5%), the United States (19.1%), Japan (14%), and China (5.3%). The largest international sources for scrap are the United States and Europe. Chile, Indonesia, Canada and Australia are the major exporters and Japan, Spain, China, Germany and Philippines are the major importers. The size of Indian Copper Industry is around 4 lakh tons, which as percentage of world copper market is 3 %. Birla Copper, Sterilite Industries are two major private producers and Hindustan Copper Ltd the public sector producers. Two major states owned telecommunications service providers; BSNL and MTNL consume 10% of country's copper production. LME and NYMEX are the two international markets, which provide direction to the copper prices. The eight leading refining nations, viz., United States, Japan, Chile, Canada, Zambia, Belgium, and the Federal Republic of Germany account for 67% of total refined metal production. Copper prices in India are fixed on the basis of the rates that rule on LME the preceding day. World copper mine production through exploration of new mine and expansion of existing mine.





LEAD

   

Lead is a very corrosion-resistant, dense, ductile, and malleable blue-gray metal that has been used for at least 5,000 years. Early uses of lead included building materials, pigments for glazing ceramics, and pipes for transporting water. Today's major use of lead is in lead-acid storage batteries. It is also for soundproofing in office buildings, schools, and hotels. It is widely used in hospitals to block X-ray and gamma radiation and is employed to shield against nuclear radiation both in permanent installations and when nuclear material is being transported. Lead production equaled approximately 82,000 tonnes in 2004, mostly from secondary sources. The main constraint in lead production in the country is the lack of lead ore reserves, which necessitates large-scale imports and recycling. Lead demand in India was estimated at 150,000 tonnes for 2004. The major suppliers for the imports were China, the Republic of Korea and Australia: 54%, 15% and 10% respectively. The domestic industry is characterized by the presence of only a few players in the primary segment. The primary lead industry in India is divided between the following main players: Binani Industries Limited and Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. (Hindustan Zinc Ltd.). USA, Japan, China, EU and India are the major consumers of Lead Supply is controlled by Australia and China.


Factor influencing demand and supply
* Changes in inventory level at LME warehouses
* Economic growth rate of major consuming countries
* Global growth and demand in major consuming industries
* Prices of the alternative metal(s)
* Participation of funds


Global Exchange(s)
London Metal Exchange
IST of Global Exchanges (Price Clues from Other Major Global Exchanges)
LME: 5.30 PM to 10.30 PM



ZINC

   

Zinc is the fourth most widely used metal after steel, aluminum and copper in the world. Due to its resistance to non-acidic atmospheric corrosion zinc is instrumental in extending the life of buildings, vehicles, ships and steel goods and structures of every kind. Zinc is a bluish-white lustrous metal. Zinc is used for alloys, electroplating, metal spraying, electrical fuses, batteries, rubber, paint, glue and matches. Zinc is registered as a fungicide, herbicide, and rodenticide. Zinc occurs naturally in the earth's crust.

Domestic Scenario
The Indian zinc industry entered its transformation phase with the privatizations of the largest zinc producer, Hindustan Zinc Ltd, in favour of the Sterlite group in April 2002. Buoyancy in domestic zinc demand primarily emanates from the boom in the steel industry, given that over 70 per cent of zinc is used for galvanizing. Other sources for demand would be die-casting, guard rails for highways and imported-substituted zinc alloys.

Global Scenario
Substitutes: Aluminum, steel, and plastics substitute for galvanized sheet. Aluminum, plastics, and magnesium are major competitors as diecasting materials. Plastic coatings, paint, and cadmium and aluminum alloy coatings replace zinc for corrosion protection; aluminum alloys are used in place of brass. Many elements are substitutes for zinc in chemical, electronic, and pigment uses.

Factors Influencing Zinc Market
* Changes in inventory level at LME warehouses
* Economic growth rate of major consuming countries
* Global growth and demand in major consuming industries
* Prices of the alternative metal(s)
* Participation of funds

London Metal Exchange
IST of Global Exchanges (Price Clues from Other Major Global Exchanges)
LME: 5.30 PM to 10.30 PM


ALUMINIUM

   

Aluminium is the third most abundant element in the Earth's crust. Aluminum is light. Its density is only one third that of steel. Aluminum is resistant to weather, common atmospheric gases and a wide range of liquids. Aluminum has a high reflectivity, and therefore finds more decorative uses. Aluminum has high elasticity, which is an advantage in structures under shock loads. Aluminium keeps its toughness down to very low temperatures, without becoming brittle like carbon steels. It is easily worked and formed. Aluminium conducts electricity and heat nearly as well as copper.


World Scenario
Aluminium ore, most commonly bauxite, is plentiful and occurs mainly in tropical and sub-tropical areas -Africa, West Indies, South America and Australia. There are also some deposits in Europe. The leading producing countries include the United States, Russia, Canada, the European Union, China, Australia, Brazil, Norway, South Africa, Venezuela, the Gulf States (Bahrain and United Arab Emirates), India and New Zealand; together they represent more than 90 percent of the world primary aluminium production. The largest aluminium markets are North America, Europe and East Asia.


Indian Scenario
India is considered the fifth largest producer of aluminium in the world. In terms of demand and supply, the situation is not only self-sufficient, but it also has export potential on a competitive basis. India's annual export of aluminium is about 82,000 tonnes. About a decade back, the primary Indian aluminium producers were BALCO, NALCO, INDAL, HINDALCO and MALCO. Of the five, two (BALCO and NALCO) were in the public sector while the other three were in the private sector. As a result of the process of liberalization of trade in aluminium, India has emerged as a net exporter of aluminium, on competitive terms. Government monopoly, in terms of aluminium production, removal of price and distribution control over aluminium, has been diluted in favour of private sector. The ownership pattern in private sector has undergone changes. With the takeover of INDAL by the HINDALCO, it has emerged as the major producer of aluminium in the country.


World Market
LME, TOCOM, SHFE and NYMEX are the important international markets that provide direction to the aluminium prices.


AGRICULTURE

CEREALS: BARLEY & WHEAT

BARLEY

   

Barley (Hindi name: Jau), a cereal grain derived from an annual grass is the fourth most important cereal crop in the world after rice, wheat and maize. Barley is very adaptable and is a widely grown crop. It is cultivated as a summer crop in temperate areas and as a winter crop in tropical areas. Barley is used as livestock feed, human food and barley malt. European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Australia, Turkey and USA are the major producers of barley accounting for around 75% of the total global production, with average production in these regions being around 55, 18, 10, 10, 6, 6, 4-5 million tonnes respectively in the recent years. Barley is cultivated as a rabi crop in India, with sowing being undertaken from October to December and harvesting from March to May. The major markets are located in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The three largest markets are Kota, Ramganj Mandi and Baran in Rajasthan.


Rising industrial demand is the main influencing factor in the Indian markets currently. While, demand from feed sector is more or less constant, demand from beer and food processing sectors are picking up. The price of other coarse cereals influences the demand from the feed sector and in-turn influences barley prices. The Government announces Minimum Support Price (MSP) for barley. However, Government procurement has been rarely undertaken, as there is no surplus production in the country.


WHEAT

   

Wheat is one of the world's three most important cereal crops along with maize and rice. It is reported to be grown domestically from atleast as early as 9000 BC and is now grown in almost all parts of the world. Wheat is a globally important source of dietary carbohydrate (starch) and protein (gluten). Its grain is a staple food used to make flour for leavened, flat and steamed breads, biscuits, cookies, cakes, breakfast cereal, pasta, noodles etc and for fermentation to make beer, alcohol, vodka, or biofuel. It is also used for feeding animals to a limited extent. Different varieties of wheat are grown across the world. The three principal types of wheat used in modern food production are: Triticum vulgare (soft wheat), Triticum durum (hard wheat) and Triticum compactum.


EU-27, China, India, USA and Russia are the five major producers of wheat accounting for close to 70% of the total global production, with 2008-09 production in these regions being 151, 112.5, 78.6, 68 and 63.8 million tonnes respectively. The major importing regions are Middle-east Asia, South-east Asia and North-west Africa. Egypt, Brazil, Indonesia, Algeria are the most important importing nations. India has the largest area in the world under wheat cultivation. However, due to low productivity it is only the third largest producer after EU-27 and China. Uttar Pradesh (34%), Punjab (20%), Haryana (13%), Rajasthan (10%) and Madhya Pradesh (10%) are the main wheat producing states of India.

World Wheat Market
Derivatives exchanges - Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which acquired Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas City Board of Trade, Zhenghzhou Commodity Exchange, South African Futures Exchange, MCX, NCDEX

US FOB and EU (France) FOB prices determine the physical prices.

Market Influencing Factors
Wheat is an annual, seasonal crop and prices usually tend to rise during the cultivation period, i.e. December to March due to scarcity in the market and dip during the peak arrival period (April and May). Weather has a profound influence on production, especially in Haryana and Punjab as temperature plays a crucial role in determining the yield. Despite international trade being limited, the several variations in production or consumption at various major or minor producing or consuming country, which influence global prices, are reflected in the domestic long-term price trend.
However, in the short-term normally there is no significant relation with international prices.


PULSES

CHANA

   

Chana belongs to leguminasae family and there are two main types - Desi and Kabuli. Desi chickpeas is the main type grown in India. Chana is a rabi crop and is sown from nov to december and harvested from Feb to March. The peak arrival period begins from March-April at the major trading centers of the country.  Indian chana markets are highly fragmented, with very long value chain. The major players in the value chain are commission agents, brokers, stockists, wholesale traders, dal mills, wholesalers (dal) and retail outlets. The information flow between these participants is restricted and very slow.


Major Trading Centers

  • Indore, Bhopal, Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh.
  • Jalgaon, Latur, Mumbai, Akola in Maharashtra.
  • Jaipur, Bikaner, Kota, Jodhpur, Sriganaganagar, Hanumangarh in Rajasthan.
  • Other major centers are Delhi, Chennai, Kanpur, Hapur, Hyderabad, Vijayawada, Gulbarga, Sirsa, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Sangrurs

Market Influencing Factors
Chana can withstand moisture stress to a certain extent. However, the production highly fluctuates between years, depending on the rains received and the moisture availability in the soil. The sentiments of traders play a significant role currently, as a consequence of the lack of free-flow of information.  Stocks present with stockists and the stocks-to-consumption ratio. Imports and the crop situation in the countries from where imports originate, viz., Canada, Australia, Myanmar. There is high substitutability between pulses in India among the consumers. So the price of other major pulses like tur, yellow peas, green peas etc also influence the prices of chana.


OIL & OIL SEEDS

CRUDE PALM OIL

 

Palm oil is obtained from fresh fruit bunches (FFB) of oil palm cultivated in plantations. There are several commercial variants of palm oil available viz., Crude Palmoil, Crude Palmolein, RBD (Refined Bleached Deoderised) Palmoil, RBD Palmolien and Palm Kernel Oil. Crude Palmoil when subjected to refining results in the other factions.

Global Scenario
Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers. They together account for 85% of production. India, China and EU are the major importers. Price competitiveness has been reason for increased consumption of this oil. India imposes 65% duty on crude oil and 75% (imposed in 2003-04 Union Budget) on RBD Palmoil. The import ratio is highly dependent on the duty imposed.  Kandla, Mumbai, Kakinada are the major ports for palmoil entry to India and the major trading points too.

Important World Palmoil Markets
Bursa Malaysian Derivatives (BMD) is the largest futures market for crude palmoil.
Malaysian & Indonesian FOB prices set the mood in the physical market.

Factors Influencing Palmoil Prices
The supply demand and price scenario of competitive oils, viz., soyoil. The supply-demand scenario of all oils and oilseeds in the consuming centers, viz., Inda, China and EU. This in turn is manifested as imports from these countries.  The palmoil production cycle: April - December is peak production period. Import regulations imposed in the importing countries.


KAPASIA KHALLI

   

Kapaskhalli (cottonseed extraction/meal) is a byproduct of the cottonseed industry. Cottonseed is a by-product of the cotton plant, which is primarily grown for its fibre. Although cotton has been grown for its fiber for several thousand years, the use of cottonseed on a commercial scale is of relatively recent origin. Cottonseed was a raw agricultural product, which was once largely wasted. Now it is being converted into food for people; feed for livestock; fertilizer and mulch for plants; fiber for furniture padding; and cellulose for a wide range of products from explosives to computer chip boards.


The global production of cottonseed is around 35 million tons in the recent years. The major producers of cotton are also the major producers of cottonseed. China, USA, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Brazil are the major producers globally. Cottonseed is a traditional oilseed of India. It is estimated that cottonseed production will be around 33% of the cotton production in bales. Around 80% of the seed is marketable surplus and arrives in the market for being crushed to oil. The remaining is used as seed is fed to cattle. India produces around 2 million tons of cottonseed meal a year.

Major Trading centres
Akola, Parbhani, Nagpur, Yeotmal are the major trading centers where cottonseed from the cotton procured by the Maharashtra State Cooperative Cotton Growers Marketing Federation is auctioned off.

Trade Scenario
Cottonseed is sold through weekly auctions in Maharashtra. In other states, there is an active cash market in the season. Cottonseed arrives in the market as a by-product of ginning operation carried on cotton. It is sold off immediately. The prices of oil and meal display good volatility, with it falling during the peak arrival period (October - January. The prices of meal are dependent on the prices of other commercially important oils like soymeal

Markets Influencing Factors
Variations in cotton production and its effect on cottonseed, meal and oil production in the country.The arrival of cottonseed for crushing from the ginning centres of the country. Comparative price with other oilseeds, oil and meal in the domestic market.


SOYABEAN

   

Soybean is an important global crop and processed soybean is the largest source of protein feed and second largest source of vegetable oil in the world. Though, a very small proportion of the crop is consumed directly by humans, soybean products appear in a large variety of processed foods. It can grow in a wide range of soils, with optimum growth in moist alluvial soils with a good organic content.

US, Brazil, Argentina, China and India are the major producers in order of production with production in these countries ranging around 70-80, 55-60, 32-48, 14-16 and 8-10 million tonnes in the recent couple of years. Weather, acreage under other competitive crops like corn, cotton and pests & diseases are the major factors influencing production. While in US, India and China crop starts arriving from Aug-Sept, it starts from Jan-Feb in S. America.

Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh are the major cultivators of this important oilseed, with their respective contributions usually around 60%, 25%, 6-7% and 1-2%. Soybean is exclusively grown in the khariff season in India, with sowing taking place after the first monsoon showers in late June or early July. Sowing can extend upto end of July in different parts of the country. However, India out of its total soymeal production of around 6.5-7 million tonnes, exports around 3.5 million tonnes with Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, UAE, Greece being the major importers

World Soy Markets

  • Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which acquired Chicago Board of Trade - the world's oldest soy futures market .
  • Dalian Commodity Exchange - trades the most liquid soybean contracts in the world
  • Argentina and Brazil FOB determine the physical prices

Major Trading Centres

Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Mandsore in Madhya Pradesh, Akola, Sangli, Nagpur in Maharashtra, Kota in Rajasthan are major trading centres.

Market Influencing Factors
Domestic prices are highly influenced by the global price movements, with prices highly correlated with the CME prices. Fundamentally, weather at all producing centers, domestic and international is the most crucial factor, with the pod bearing period, being the most crucial. The other major influencing factor is the prices of soy oil and soymeal, which are in-turn dependent on the fundamentals of global edible oil and global animal feed industry. The supply-demand and price scenario of competitive oils, viz., palmoil. The crush margin between meal, oil and seed.

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